Sports Betting Model Excel Template

Become the groundbreaker of betting by using a sports bet tracker, a simple yet effective tool for helping you make the most of your betting potential. This revolutionary and reinvented Excel spreadsheet tracks all your bets, keep data on what comes in and out, while letting you know where you need to step up your game. Discount Codes Sports Betting Excel Sheet Template Comparison,Budget Sports Betting Excel Sheet Template Cons. The sports betting spreadsheet is free to use, click the link above to download. It opens with Microsoft Office Excel software and is compatible with either Mac or PC. Using the sports bet tracker Settings. The Excel spreadsheet is made of 6 layers. You can move between the sheets by clicking on the tabs along the bottom. I build analytics models in Microsoft Excel that analyze sports betting lines. My models update daily and all members can view them, purchase them, or better yet, help me make them better! Current models include NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NHL and MLB (Soccer on hold) NFL 2019: 101-61 MLB 2019: +65 units. NCAAB 2019: 241-239 NHL 2019: 43-33-2.

Once I learned that Andrew Mack had begun work on the second volume of his Statistical Sports Models in Excel book series and that it would be published in a matter of months, I realised that I was yet to share my thoughts on his first instalment.

This is a book review that should have been published long ago. Not because I read volume one back in August of last year, but because of the valuable lessons it can teach bettors and the more people that are aware of those lessons, the better.

One of many ways to bet

Although many bettors don’t like to believe it, there is no goose that lays the golden eggs in sports betting. There are various different ways to approach betting on sports and each have their own merits and potential pitfalls. In his book, Andrew Mack focuses on one particular approach that can lead to success when the required time and effort is put in to get the desired results.

The world of data analytics and modelling in sports betting is nothing new. However, breaking down the odds in a betting market through analysis of data sets and using simulations and models to predict future outcomes has very much taken over the traditional handicapping we might have seen at sportsbooks less than a decade ago. Andrew even references Pinnacle’s own Marco Blume and the fact that he’s talked about how our traders are using R and Python for pricing and trading.

Much like building models and setting your own odds to compare against the market is one of many ways to bet, there are countless methods and programs to use within the wide-ranging term of sports modelling. As the title suggests, this book focuses on Excel rather than a detailed analysis of other programming languages like the aforementioned R and Python.

Honing in on one specific language may alienate those that have already discovered they are better suited to alternative options, but it also allows the book to delve straight into the real detail without generalising. There’s nothing more off-putting for a reader, especially a novice in this field like myself, than having to wade through materials or examples that aren’t applicable and can’t be used to help improve your understanding.

Don’t expect a guide on how to win in sports betting

It is an outlandish claim for any book to say it offers a simple solution to winning in sports betting. However, the problem we have is that there are so many people out there wanting to believe it’s possible - and this makes books that appeal to a get rich quick mentality possible and it’s why they are probably some of the best-selling books out there.

Statistical Sports Models in Excel is at the opposite end of that spectrum. It is laden with warnings about how difficult it is to achieve positive expected value with your bets and that it will likely take a lot of mistakes and a lot of failure before you even get close to that point.

There are no convoluted sentences, concepts are communicated clearly and for each example used there is a thorough-guided process with additional visual cues.

I think what Andrew’s book offers is a big step in the right direction for breaking down something that can often be quite daunting to bettors. Many people will be so put off by the technical jargon and lack of user-friendly interfaces for a lot of the necessary software or applications that they won’t even begin the journey of modelling in sports betting.

What this book does is open the door to those with an interest who haven’t quite made the jump to getting their hands dirty yet, or those who have tried but require additional help.

The fact that Andrew is happy to give this information away shows that there is little to no value in betting with the actual examples shown. There is value, however, in learning about the benefits of sports modelling, where to access data, how to use it and where these newfound skills can take you (as well as how much additional work is required).

An important word of warning

It is important for those interested in reading this book that, as Andrew states in the very opening, sports betting is “fraught with difficulty”. This obviously means you should expect challenges and periods of difficulty if you hope to reach the end goal of achieving consistent profits.

This book is certainly a great place to start and while the level of complexity does follow a natural progression through the book so as to not put off the reader as they develop their skillset, it will be quite dense and require a bit of hard work to get through at points. I think you’ll be hard pressed to find any literature on this subject matter that doesn’t feel like that in parts.

The key to enjoying Statistical Sports Models in Excel is to treat it as an exercise book or textbook you might find in school. It will take work to get through it and when things don’t quite click, it might be best to take a break rather than ploughing through. It is worth persevering though and because it feels more personalised as a reader, it makes it much easier to stick with compared to the dull equivalents that might be handed out in class.

The key is in the simplicity

While I feel it is worth warning potential readers about the complexity of a book like this, it has to be said that keeping it as simple as possible is one of its standout features. There are no convoluted sentences, concepts are communicated clearly and for each example used there is a thorough-guided process with additional visual cues.

This focus on simplicity doesn’t hinder the breadth of sports that can be covered or the different models that are shown within Statistical Sports Models in Excel either. This approach also allows the reader to actually use the book as a workbook and while I don’t bet on a regular basis, I still found myself reading along with Excel open on my computer to see how easy it is to implement the teachings.

Statistical Sports Models in Excel is laden with warnings about how difficult it is to achieve positive expected value with your bets and that it will likely take a lot of mistakes and a lot of failure before you even get close to that point.

The text is cleverly structured and formatted to speak to the reader as they develop as a modeller. Only once you’ve got through the introduction that includes a walkthrough for setting up Excel and utilising the available add-ons (some are free and some come at a cost) and have your “Excel modelling toolbox” can you begin to look at working on actual models.

Sports Betting Model Excel Template Google Sheets

By the time you’ve got to trying out a Game Scores Standard Deviation Model, the earlier work on the Bradley Terry Model and Team OLS Optimised Rating (TOOR) model make the process much more straightforward. This isn’t just because of the similarities between these models, but the fact that the basics are covered first and with each step throughout the book do you build on your knowledge.

Of course, building these models is only one small step towards the end goal for the majority of people reading this. Developing your skills and building new models with other data-sets is needed to take things to another level, but starting out with a simple approach to building the foundations will certainly stand the readers in good stead.

I would strongly recommend anyone who finds themselves as an observer in conversations about modelling in sports take the time to read Statistical Sports Models in Excel. It’s benefits will most likely become even more apparent if you take a practical approach and follow the book as a guide. I, for one, am definitely looking forward to volume two in this series.

Quick stroy behind my basketball betting model. When I started betting, basketball became one of my favourite sports. Why? Because I was was placing bets in my local bookmaker and they simply didn’t move the lines back in late 90’s and at the start of 2000. This was the time, when I started my betting career and I had not idea, that this will be my full-time job 20 years later.

The difference between my lines and my local bookmakers lines

Back then I didn’t have any betting model and didn’t go deep with analysis like I do now. But I understand one thing – and this is the concept of +EV. I knew, that I should never ever bet on so-called winner, but instead of this I must to find the value. The value is always, when you get more for the same price or if you like, the value is when you get more than you would expect.

I was not basketball expert, but I was smarter than my local bookmaker back then. I was checking sharp online bookmakers lines and then I compared with my local bookmaker. I found, that betting on games, where the lines from my bookmaker and those from online sharp bookmakers (like Pinnacle), is very successful.

How it worked back then?

My local bookmaker didn’t create their own odds, they didn’t have any betting experts or math models to create their own lines. They simply opened the same lines on basketball games like Pinnacle and other big online bookmakers. Then they added little bi more juice and this was enough to eat small bettors.

However, there was also a small group of bettors, that understand this and I was among them. I knew, that they opened the same lines than Pinnacle on all basketball games and they opened that lines couple of days before the actual games even started.

But they missed one thing. They didn’t move the lines. And even if they moved them, they were to slow. And I knew it. So, I simply payed attention to those games, where my local bookmaker didn’t move the line and the difference between their lines and Pinnacle lines was big enough to bet on that game. And I can say you, that those differences were pretty big and I made a lot of money back then.

At some point they blocked my bets and all my combinations. The limits were not big, but I send my friends to bet at the same time the same combination and same bets.

Well….this is an example how it worked back then…

On Wednesday, Pinnacle opened the odds on Spanish basketball league games, that would be played on Saturday. Their opening lines on basketball game between Barcelona vs Real Madrid were:

BARCELONA -7 at 1.95 (-105)

REAL MADRID +7 at 1.95 (-105)

My local bookmaker copied those lines and add little bit more juice:

BARCELONA -7 at 1.89

REAL MADRID +7 at 1.89

At the first look, there was no value on this play and I also didn’t have betting model to estimate my own lines or odds to see if I have a value.

But then something happened….

Pinnacle moved the lines. Sometimes those line movements were quick, because of some very important information.

Their odds changed and would be immediately

BARCELONA -2 at 1.95 (-105)

REAL MADRID +2 at 1.95 (-105)

My local bookmaker was not that fast and didn’t move the line so quickly. Sometimes, they didn’t even move it. And the lines on my bookmaker stayed the same. They still offered:

BARCELONA -7 at 1.89

REAL MADRID +7 at 1.89

Of course, I knew, that playing Real Madrid is a vale play now, because my “betting advisor – sharp online bookmaker” – has Real at only -2. In other words, my online bookmaker thinks, that Real will lose this game for 2 points, no more. So, I have +5 points of room with Real +7 at my local bookie.

And this is how I beat a bookmaker back then, just by looking for the difference between my lines (my lines = online bookmakers lines) and my local bookmaker lines. In other words I was looking for a value, where my betting model was simply odds from online bookmakers.

But the things have changed….

Of course this couldn’t last forever. Local bookmakers were smarter and smarter, they started to move the lines very quickly and with the internet there is no bookmaker, that will make such mistakes on a daily basis.

So, I needed to find another way and this is how I started to bet baseball in next few years. But I learned one thing – you will beat a bookmaker only if you will find different lines and odds than they. There is no other way.

Most bettors still didn’t make a step forward…

I quickly realised, that betting on bookmakers will not be profitable anymore. Big bookmakers don’t make big mistakes anymore and small bookmakers don’t do a lot of them. I was an active member on different forums and I also saw, that following other people’s picks will not be profitable anymore, because you’ll never get the same lines and the odds.

With the internet whole sports betting world changed. The lines move all the time and the the best way is to learn how to bet. Sports betting is not like some other speculative businesses, where you trust your money to someone and they will make money for you. In sports betting there are many obstacles, like limiting players from bookmakers and every single bettor is a single story.

Then I decided, that I will start using my own statistics in sports betting…

Next few years I spend analysing the baseball and didn’t pay too much attention to basketball, because of little bit lower bet limits, because of quick line movements and I simply didn’t have enough data for European basketball leagues. Baseball gave me all that with huge data size.

The challenge….

Until 2017 I didn’t pay much attention to basketball betting, I also started with my Underdogchance site and then somebody asked me if I can create a betting model for soccer, for basketball, for tennis,….even for a cycling.

I said myself – why not

I still want to stick with baseball betting, which is my main sport to bet, but because I can help other bettors with their sports too, I decided that I will challenge myself to create betting models for other sports too.

STATISTIC and ANALYTICS is crucial and if you can mix this with other information that you have, you can beat a bookmaker. If you bet without statistics at all, if you rely on intuition, if you rely on public information, if you follow other people’s picks, where you always pay very big price with the odds, you don’t have a chance on the long run. And long run will happen at some point to all of us. Bettors that win in short time will keep betting for sure and they will face “long run” sooner or later. Unfortunately “long run” means also a bankruptcy for most bettors in the world. And one of the key reasons is that they don’t use statistics and analytics at all.

I understand the basic concept in sports betting, I know how to use statistics and I wanted to create something that will be simple and easy to understand for everyone. When I started betting I was always looking for betting models, but they didn’t existed and if they existed, nobody would share them with me. But this is something I wish existed back then.

And this is how it started…

I have created a basketball betting model for my basketball friends and followers, so they can include statistic on a very simple way before they bet.

I didn’t use any complex programming languages, like python, but I wanted to create something in excel or google spreadsheet, which is free. After all those two tools I use for myself too.

I wanted to create a betting model, where you can calculate your own lines for basketball games. Something like information about first lines, that I get from my online bookmaker back then when I was beating my local bookmaker.

The idea was to compare my lines with bookmakers lines and then bet where there is bigger difference.

Because all my work is based on honesty and transparency, I started to share all my bets with my followers and also on some forums.

The success was great and I knew that I have created some tool, that every basketball bettor that don’t use any statistics must have.

With this method $100 bettor would make close to $6000 in 2017…

Sports Betting Model Excel Template Excel

I understand that there is no perfect betting model, but I also understand, that bookmakers also don’t have perfect numbers, because sport is complex thing. I also understand, that they move the lines because of market.

But if I can pay attention on games only when the difference is enough big between my lines and their lines, I can definitely find some value. Numbers never lie, they are all about the facts.

And this is how I started testing my model for all kind of leagues, except NBA.

The record: 236 – 149 – 7 (61.30%)

Profit (1 unit/bet flat):

Download PDF with the results

This result analysis is made if you bet simple 1 unit flat and didn’t change the stake in this betting period.

The method was used from some of my followers on other sports as well. I didn’t test this model on other sports and the leagues, but I got feedback from others….

After I released my basketball bets, odds dropped quickly

I don’t sell picks, because I believe, that this is wrong focus by bettors/punters. Following other people’s picks never really worked and 99.9% of people are very disappointed with other people picks. No matter if I make a profit on the long run, most bettors will not reach the same yield and profit than me.

Don’t get me wrong, it is not your or my fault, but it is a general problem in sports betting world.

There are definitely bettors who make profit for themselves and there are very successful bettors, but to follow their advice with positive result is very hard in most cases. In dynamic sports betting world, where the odds are changing all the time, it is even harder.

Sports Betting Model Excel Template

After all, instead of focusing on other people’s picks, bettors can focus on their knowledge and make their own winning picks without paying thousands and thousands of dollars every season.

Because of that, I decided, that I will share this method with you.

The main idea is still that you get your own lines, which you can later combine with your information that you have about basketball leagues.

Sports Betting Model Excel Template Spreadsheet

Blindly following this model….

I didn’t make extra research on those basketball leagues. I simply used my numbers, I projected my own lines and then I bet when the difference was 7 points for the spread and 10 points for the totals.

If you are a basketball bettor, you will have my private method and you can combine it with your analysis, which is amazing and can give you great results.

Would you like to…

Learn how I have created this model?

Excel Betting Spreadsheet

Learn how I used it?

To have this knowledge forever?

If the answer is YES, then keep reading, because I reveal my private betting model here. I don’t just share some sheet, where you put the numbers. NO.

You get the video (24:16 minutes), where I show you step by step how I have created this. It is very easy to understand, it is easy to follow and after one hour you will have your own betting model for basketball.

Exactly the same that I use for myself.

It is not just about the results…

It’s about including simple statistics into your analysis. Majority of bettors don’t use it at all. For majority of bettors using statistics is too complex. But I show you how you can use statistics on a very simple way.

KNOWLEDGE

Get a knowledge for a lifetime.

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