Betting On Favorites Football

The point spread is considered the great equalizer in football betting, and being on the right side of that line is the goal of every football bettor. An example of this would be seeing the Kansas City Chiefs as a. Soccer Betting Strategy for Backing the Big Favorites Backing big favorites is a very popular strategy among soccer bettors. It’s incredibly straightforward, and it’s likely to return plenty of winners. Bet on this weeks Football with Betfair. Join Betfair and bet with the best odds. We also offer Casino, Poker, Games and Bingo.

1. Does Betting On Favourites Work
2. Betting On Football Game
3. Betting On Favorites Football Checklist

A quick search for betting on favourites on Google throws up hundreds of “fool-proof” systems for making money, which simply require your credit card details and a one-time payment of $100 to read about them. And one of the most common “systems” you will encounter is betting on favourites, because here we find there is some truth behind the lies.

Burnley vs Arsenal: Betting tips, predictions, odds & match preview. Arsenal will be looking to close the gap in the race for European football when they travel to face Burnley in the Premier. Best Betting Picks - NFL, NCAA, NBA, NHL, MLB, Soccer and More. College Football, Baseball and Basketball Betting Odds. A money line bet is on a team to win the game outright (with no point spread).

A lot of academic research has been done into the so-called favourite longshot bias in betting markets. All winning betting strategies are based on exploiting market inefficiencies and when it comes to favourites there appears to be rather a large one in place. Put simply, favourites are much closer to “true odds” than longshots.

One major study you will find quoted in lightly researched articles on favourite betting is by two American academics who examined the results of over 6 million horse races in America and found backing favourites lost at a rate of 5.5% while backing from 3/1-15/1 lost at 18% on average.

The good news for bookmakers there is no matter what people bet on they lose, but it’s a significant difference between favourites and longer odds bets. Favourites are priced up more accurately than longshots. It’s also been shown to apply to other markets with particular application to political and novelty markets where it seems the shorter the odds the greater the bias.

Favourites in Football

In the last 20 years a number of research papers have been published to see if this applies to football with confusingly mixed results. Some say yes, some say no and some say both. If you were hoping that a simple “always bet on the favourite” strategy was your route to profit, then think again. But there are some key lessons:

1. Betting on the favourite is rarely a bad bet
2. Shorter priced favourites are often better value than longer priced ones
3. You need to do some work of your own

What various academic and recreational research from bettors has found is betting on favourites generally allows you to lose more slowly. This isn’t a great long-term strategy, but as a starting point it at least demonstrates that betting the favourite is rarely a bad bet. As a starting point, losing at a slow rate is a damn sight better than most punters manage.

For some bettors the nature of betting short-priced favourites seems counterintuitive to their notion of “value”. Risk reward is an odd concept, and betting £100 to win £20 on a 1.2 selection doesn’t seem hugely attractive to many, but research has shown this is often a better bet than £100 on a 1.8 shot in terms of expected long-term returns.

A good demonstration of this comes in rugby union, where New Zealand will often be priced at something absurdly unattractive like 1/80 to beat most sides outside the top six. But losses to those teams are extremely rare. In fact the All Blacks have never lost to an international team that isn’t Australia, England, South Africa, France or Wales. Never. How good does your 1/80 look now?

The All Blacks are perennial favourites. Their 2015 World Cup winning team is regarded by many as the greatest rugby team ever assembled

When favourites betting goes bad

But if you are too cavalier with these kinds of stats you can come unstuck as South Africa showed in the Rugby World Cup where they were 1/100 to beat Japan. The Springboks had similar stats to New Zealand, having only lost internationals to 8 teams in their history. The loss to the minnows of Japan was the biggest shock of the tournament, but it should be seen as an exception and not the rule.

There were warning signs including an improving Japanese side a South African side that lost all three of its games in the Rugby Championship including at home to Argentina. And the final and most important point is you can’t just trust blindly in backing short-priced favourites and expect to never be stung for a big loss now and again.

Take the 2015/16 Premier League as an example of how favourites perform on a long-term betting basis. The 2014/15 season threw up a rather conveniently even 100 wins from 150 games where the home side was under 2.0. In other words odds-on to win. This would have given a total profit of £4.85 to a £1 level stakes bet. Pretty good.

The following season, by early February, there were 50 winners from 91 games for a total loss of £13.75 to the same level £1 stakes. The 2013/14 season had 99 winners from 143 games for a season-long profit of £1.21. So it shows that an expected long-term trend can sometimes go wildly off track.

In Conclusion

So what does all this tell us? Well firstly that this is not an exact science and secondly that despite the 15/16 anomaly there is a lot of value to be had in odds on favourites. What it should encourage you to do is go and analyse the huge wealth of stats and betting data that exists for free on the internet and try and find your own conclusions.

Find a data source and play around with the results. Spot a pattern and develop a system that works for you by refining the data and using your own insight into what might make odds-on chances more or less likely to win. But don’t, whatever you do, fall into the trap of thinking a 1.20 bet doesn’t present value.

Top Tips

• Betting on the favourite is rarely a bad bet
• Shorter priced favourites are often better value than longer priced ones
• You need to do some work of your own

How to Bet on Football

If you're looking to learn how to bet on NFL football, you're reading the right betting guide. There isn't a more popular sport to bet on in North America then football, as bettors each fall clamour to anything and everything related to betting on football. From point spreads, to over/unders, to money lines, to everything in between, there is no busier time in the sports betting landscape then during those fall and winter months when football season is going on.

How to bet on football during the season is about as easy as it comes as sportsbooks everywhere make the sport their priority. There is never a shortage of betting options on football games, and with the popularity of fantasy football as well, player props – NFL bets based on the player's production – are plentiful as well. To learn more about the NFL game and NFL players check out ourNFL headlines page which is constantly being updated for the latest NFL news and injuries to help you with your NFL bets.

Best Football Betting Sites

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Understanding Football Odds

The biggest thing in regards to understanding NFL odds relates to the point spread that's put up on each game. Betting on football isn't as simple as just picking the eventual winner of the game, you've got to consider who will win, but more importantly by how much. The point spread is considered the great equalizer in football betting, and being on the right side of that line is the goal of every football bettor. An example of this would be seeing the Kansas City Chiefs as a -4.5 favorite over their opponent, meaning they would have to win the game by at least five points for a bet on KC to win. Otherwise their opponent covers the point spread and that side would win.

Aside from the point spread, the next biggest betting option in football odds each year is the over/under, or total for the game. All these are are point totals bettors are asked to go over or under on for the total combined points in a game. For example a total may be posted at 48.5, and the bettor's job is to predict whether or not the total number of points in the game will exceed or stay below that number. A final score of 30-20 would cash an 'over' bet (50 total points), while a final score of 24-21 (45 total points) would connect on an 'under' selection.

NFL Future Wagers

Future wagers in football are what bettors everywhere spend a good chunk of the summer breaking down, as it's all about what football teams will ultimately come out on top in whatever category the future wager concerns itself with.

The biggest future wager deals with who will ultimately win the Super Bowl that year, and that's one where all the teams will have varying odds on their championship potential. The more likely the team is to be in the championship/playoff fold, the lower their odds will be, but that shouldn't discourage you from looking at teams further down the odds list. Anything and everything can happen during a football season and often does.

Aside from trying to correctly predict the outright champion, other future wagers in football deal with eventual winners in different categories. For team-based futures, these include things like winning their respective division or conference (in college football), winning the AFC or NFC conference in the NFL, and probably the most popular, whether or not a team will go over or under their season win total projection. That's as simple as it sounds. Numbers are put up on how many outright wins a team will have in a given year – say 8.5 for the Buffalo Bills – and the bettor's job is to decipher whether or not the Bills will finish with at least 9 wins (over) or less (under).

How to Bet the Super Bowl

The Super Bowl is the single biggest betting event on the sports calendar each year, and finding a place to bet on the game is never hard. How to bet on the Super Bowl is a tough thing to explain because you can literally bet on everything about the game and all the surrounding festivities that go on within it, so it's really up to the individual bettor on their wagering preference.

Super Bowl odds for the game itself are the first numbers to hit the market, as the Super Bowl line for the game is the number that quickly gets quoted and discussed about once the matchup is set. But Super Bowl betting is such a vast landscape as a whole, that it's a good thing for some that there is a two-week lead up to the game itself. Below are various tables of the best NFL betting sites with signup bonuses to get you started on your NFL betting journey.

How to Bet the College Football Playoff

NCAA Football odds bring a bit of a different dynamic to football betting overall, as the disparity in talent a lot of the time between college programs brings much larger college football point spreads in general. That tends to not be the case once the college football playoff arrives, as these are the consensus four best teams in the country that year, and with a full season of data behind them, sportsbooks are able to put out some of the toughest (aka sharpest) college football lines out for those playoff games.

College football betting lines during the CFB playoff are dissected for weeks, as bettors look to get what they believe to be the best of the number depending on which program(s) they are looking to back. It's a format where you get three total games to break down from a side and total perspective, and hopefully when it is time for that National Championship game, you keep the big picture in mind of what said teams did over the course of the entire year, and not just how good/bad they looked in advancing through the semi-final matchup.

Popular Football Wagers

Popular football wagers can generally be described as any and all wagers on the point spread or total for football games because of the overwhelming popularity of the sport for betting on the whole. Part of the reason for such popularity is the format of the game itself, as bettors get essentially a full week to do all the research they deem necessary to be successful and then go from there. There are fewer snap decisions or feelings of unpreparedness as there can be with the other major North American sports that operate on a daily schedule because there is only so much one can do in a single day.

NFL Point Spread

If you had to rank or make a list of the most popular football wagers, the point spread would have to come in at the top. All football fans/bettors believe they have more of a grasp on the general question(s) of what team will win and by how many, as opposed to the total points scored, which effectively can be a bit more random. Point spread wagers are where everyone likes to concentrate their attention first.

NFL Over-Under

The total, or over-under, for a football game would have to be classified as next on the popularity list, as it is a wager where you can find a bit more of an edge over the oddsmaker if you are confident in what your handicapping process entails for totals. Yes, the total points scored can be considered a bit more random then the eventual winner of the game, but it's over-under numbers that see more movement on the whole each week leading up to a weekend of football action because bettors everywhere believe their data models etc give them a significant edge at certain numbers and don't hesitate to exploit them when available.

NFL Money Line

Money line bets in football are those where bettors can eliminate the second half of the questions regarding what football team will win and by how much. The “how much” doesn't matter at all in money line plays and oddsmakers price them accordingly. A bettor will have to put up much more money to win say $100 on the ML for a team that's got a -10 number beside their name on the point spread as opposed to a -3 favorite. But that's the price some are willing to pay to avoid getting burned by the 'winning by how much' question.

How Do I Bet Football Parlays

Does Betting On Favourites Work

Speaking of money line wagers in football, one of the most common forms of getting a bulk of money line wagers is to have a few of them parlayed together. Betting football parlays is relatively simple in that you need at least two games to make a parlay, and whether or not you chose to use the money lines, point spreads, totals, or any combination of those three is completely up to the bettor.

An example of a football parlay would go like this: Say you believe the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos are both going to win their respective matchups on Sunday. This would be where you are using money line prices only and not concerned with the point spread or over/under for the games.

New England has a money line price of -200 while Denver has a money line price of -150. Bet separately, a bettor would have to put up $200 to win $100 on New England and $150 to win $100 on Denver, but combining the two teams in a money line (aka ML) parlay would have those odds multiplied together. In turn that creates a +150 price overall, and now a single $100 bet would end up potentially paying out $150 in profit for the bettor. However, both teams have to win their games, otherwise the parlay wager is a loser. That's the risk you take with parlays.

What are NFL Prop Bets

Prop bets, short for proposition, are bets that are essentially on anything and everything not specifically related to overall result of who wins and loses. That's not entirely true on specifics, but that's also part of a discussion for another day.

In general proposition bets cover things like statistical results for players – how many completions will a QB have, how many catches or receiving yards will a player have, or even how many points a field goal kicker will account for in a game. The list for what's offered in prop wagers for a specific football game is extremely long at sportsbooks, far too long to fully get into here, but if football bettors come to them with a fantasy football background they are much more easily digested. Prop betting is a market that's picked up exponential interest in recent years on online betting sites because the numbers oddsmakers typically put out are believed to be more beatable, but again, it takes plenty of time and research to feel completely comfortable in what you're doing with them. For example, you can place an NFL prop bet on Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Amari Cooper to have over 8.5 catches on Sunday Night Football against the New York Giants. NFL Prop bets allow the game to remain entertaining even when the score is lopsided.

NFL Teasers

Teasers are another popular football bet where NFL bettors can essentially manipulate the point spread and/or over-under line to a more favorable number for their selection. Sportsbooks offer NFL teasers in a variety of point ranges – as even buying a half-point on a spread is a form of a teaser, but in general, 6, 6.5, 7 and 10-point teasers are offered.

Depending on the range a bettor selects – say a 6-point teaser – lines are then manipulated plus or minus 6 points for the bettor depending on what team/side they like. If the New England Patriots were a -7 favorite against Buffalo and you wanted to use a 6-point teaser on them, the new point spread would be New England -1 (moving 6 points lower), whereas if you liked the underdog Buffalo Bills instead in that game, the teased line would then be Buffalo +13 (moving 6 points higher. Teasers do also function like parlays in the sense that you've got to have at least two teased options to make a single teaser.

NFL Live Betting and In-Game Wagering

Many bettors and oddsmakers alike believe that live betting and in-game wagering is the future of sports betting on the whole, and with football betting being the biggest piece of the sports betting pie, live betting football games can be quite thrilling and profitable all at once.

How it works is exactly as the name suggests, as point spreads, totals, and money line prices (among numerous other things including prop bets) are offered throughout each game and before each play. Prices reflect the current score at the time and who has the football and where on the field, so if a pre-game favorite finds themselves in an early hole on the scoreboard, you can rightfully assume that that team is getting at least some support on the ML or new point spreads in live betting offerings.

Betting On Football Game

Super Bowl 54 that saw the Kansas City Chiefs come back in the 2nd half to the beat San Francisco 49ers saw plenty of in-game wagering overall, as bettors who believed the Chiefs would ultimately come back did not hesitate to get as good as underdog price on the ML as they could with Kansas City when they were trailing.

With the way that data is consumed instantly these days, in-game wagering is offered on all NFL games each week and the majority of college football games as well. So whether it's Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football, or just a typical Sunday afternoon of following a full slate of football, live betting is something that every bettor should be willing to add to their toolbox as a handicapper.

NFL 1st half and 2nd half bets

These NFL bets are rather self explanatory as well, as they are just point spreads, totals, and money line prices for the respect 30 minutes of play they are titled as. Generally speaking (although it's by no means exactly how they work) 1st half bets are the full game numbers cut in half, give or take a point or so. So a full game line of New England Patriots -7 with a total of 48.5 would see 1st half lines of New England -3.5 or -4, with a 1st half total likely somewhere around 23.5 to 24.5.

2nd half bets are a bit of a different beast as they have to account for what's happened in the first 30 minutes so far and adjust accordingly to what was listed pre-game as well.

Other Football Leagues in United States and North America

XFL Football

XFL Football returned in 2020 before being shutdown like every other sporting event in the spring because of world events, but in the short time XFL action was on the football field, it had plenty of sports from football bettors everywhere. The success in that market proves just how much bettors love to bet on the game of football regardless of the league, and with the XFL coming back for 2021, and the league's initiative to welcome sports betting talk and referencing with open arms, there is likely tremendous growth in store for XFL betting markets in the future.

Canadian Football

Betting On Favorites Football Checklist

Canadian Football (aka the CFL) has a few key rule differences to that of the NFL/NCAA football, but it's still the same game out there on the gridiron and can still be bet on accordingly. Given scoring and rule differences – like the XFL – key betting numbers in terms of the point spread and over-under lines are a little different, but CFL betting lines aren't nearly as obsessed over NFL/NCAAF lines are for oddsmakers and if you are able and willing to put in the time, CFL profits can be just as green for your bankroll's bottom line.